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With Black Friday and Cyber Monday approaching, US-bound sellers have received two pieces of unwelcome news: about 250 security workers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have been authorized to strike, with action possible as early as November 1; meanwhile, trans-Pacific ocean freight rates keep climbing, with 40-foot container rates on the US East Coast route already
Port strikes, rail congestion, and rising ocean rates are combining to add fresh uncertainty to an already tight peak-season logistics picture.
Strike risk looms at the two major West Coast ports
The labor dispute involves port security workers under Local 26 of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU).
According to logistics industry media FreightWaves, about 250 port security workers have voted to authorize a strike; if the two sides fail to reach an agreement before the contract expires, the walkout could begin as early as 5 p.m. local time on November 1.
Some sellers question: "At roughly 2% of ILWU staffing across Los Angeles and Long Beach, can such a small group really cause widespread disruption?"
Port security workers primarily handle terminal access and related safety management — and notably, those involved here are not ordinary dockworkers but 250 night-shift guards responsible for security and oversight at eight core container terminals. Logistics insiders note that if a strike actually starts on November 1, half of America's supply
According to information previously disclosed by employer-side Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), the terminals covered by the security workers handle about 85% of Long Beach's cargo volume and 33% of Los Angeles'. More importantly, employers worry that if Local 26 members set up picket lines, other ILWU workers may refuse to cross them and continue working.
In other words, even if only about 250 people actually walk out, the impact on the ports cannot be measured simply by 250 workers' workload.
However, new negotiating progress emerged on October 29. The Wall Street Journal reported that PMA is finalizing an arrangement to extend the existing labor contract to November 4, giving both sides more time to negotiate a new agreement.
So the current situation is: strike authorization has passed, but no strike has actually occurred, and the contract extension is still being finalized. The outcome of talks will directly determine whether port operations are disrupted.
Beyond the labor dispute, rail congestion at Los Angeles and Long Beach also deserves sellers' attention.
A FreightWaves report on October 28, citing the ports' daily rail report, said that as of October 26, 35,688 import containers at the two ports were waiting for rail transport, of which 10,562 had been sitting at terminals for at least 9 days.
Specifically, Los Angeles had 19,626 containers awaiting rail service, 8,133 of which had been waiting 9 days or more; Long Beach had 16,062, of which 2,429 had waited 9 days or more.
These figures show that pressure on the West Coast ports comes not only from the labor dispute. Rising import volumes and tight rail-car supply are already affecting inland transshipment efficiency for some cargo.
Still, sellers need not over-worry: containers waiting for rail are not all delayed. FreightWaves notes that vessel queues outside the ports are not severe, and truck-transported containers are broadly normal. But for cargo that must be transshipped by rail to the US Midwest and East, rail
If a strike does occur, port loading and gate operations would be disrupted; combined with existing rail congestion, the time from vessel arrival to completed inland transshipment could stretch further. For sellers who have already scheduled Black Friday promotions, warehouse intake, and customer delivery, this undoubtedly complicates logistics planning.
US East Coast rates break $10,000
Beyond strike risk, rising ocean rates are also pressuring sellers.
According to Freightos' weekly rate report released on October 28, trans-Pacific rates continued to climb last week. The 40-foot container rate on the Asia-to-US East Coast route rose 9% to $10,565/FEU, a new high for the year; the Asia-to-US West Coast route also
European routes rose as well. The Asia-to-Northern Europe rate gained 3% to $3,551/FEU; the Asia-to-Mediterranean rate rose 8% to $4,252/FEU.
By increase, the US East Coast route is the most pronounced in this round of trans-Pacific moves. That said, these figures come from the Freightos Baltic Index weekly rate index; they do not represent every forwarder's actual quoted prices, nor does every shipment pay exactly this rate.
For sellers, however, the cost pressure from higher rates is already direct. For products with thin margins, each round of ocean-rate increases can squeeze per-unit profit further. And if cargo arrives only to hit rail transshipment delays, extra warehousing and detention charges may pile up.
As for where logistics costs head next, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand previously judged that even if Asia-to-US container spot rates are near a cyclical high, they will not fall back quickly in the short term, and are expected to stay relatively elevated through the rest of 2026. Sellers cannot
Addressing the current logistics situation, a veteran of cross-border e-commerce for years said sellers should prioritize four things:
First, sellers who have already shipped should sort through in-transit cargo promptly.
Do not just watch the vessel's estimated arrival time; also confirm the berthing terminal for the container, discharge progress, and whether onward movement will be by rail or truck. For cargo already booked on rail, sellers can confirm rail capacity and estimated transshipment timing with their forwarders in advance; if cargo may be affected, raise follow-up arrangements early.
Second, for new orders, do not blindly rush to grab space or hastily change destination ports because of strike news.
Oakland and Seattle can be evaluated as backup options, but changing ports does not necessarily mean faster or cheaper. Sellers need to weigh carrier routes, actual space availability, destination distance, and inland transport costs. If cargo still must reach the Midwest or East, rail and truck transshipment costs should be included in the calculation.
Third, re-calculate peak-season logistics costs and leave some room in margins.
For orders not yet shipped, sellers can get quotes from multiple forwarders and compare sailings and transport options, rather than chasing the lowest price at the expense of transit time. For customers already quoted or promised delivery times, prepare communication plans for potential delays in advance — especially orders with firm promotion and delivery milestones during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Finally, keep monitoring labor negotiations and port announcements.
Strike authorization has passed, but a contract extension is being pursued; whether a strike ultimately happens still depends on the two sides' talks. Sellers should follow the latest notices from ILWU, PMA, carriers, and forwarders, and adjust shipping plans based on actual developments, rather than hastily overhauling the entire peak-season logistics plan on the strength of one strike warning.
For US-bound sellers, Black Friday stocking has entered its final critical phase. What needs to be guarded against now is not just rising ocean rates, but whether cargo can be discharged, transshipped, and received into warehouses smoothly after arrival. Over the coming days, progress in the Los Angeles and Long Beach labor talks will be a key variable for US-bound logistics.
