Author: Yuguang Cross-border | Source: Yuguang.com | Cover image: Pexels

Europe has seen demonstrations recently, and new developments are emerging in port shipping. Logistics firm Kuehne+Nagel warns that on October 30, more than 50 ports across Europe and the Mediterranean plan coordinated union action; some ports may halt operations, with the actual impact depending on local arrangements.

For sellers rushing out peak-season shipments, logistics changes don't stop there. UPS and FedEx have both announced new rate adjustment plans, with average increases of 5.9%; meanwhile, global forwarder giant DSV has begun proactively pruning low-price, loss-making client business. One affects last-mile rates, the other involves forwarders' business trade-offs. Sellers now need to calculate not just how much freight has risen, but which products' margins can still hold up.

Rising freight rates mean sellers must recalculate

According to UPS's published 2027 rate adjustment information, from December 21, 2026, its daily rates for ground, air and international services will rise by an average net 5.9%. UPS says the adjustment supports network expansion and service capability, though for each customer actual cost changes still depend on parcel characteristics and contract terms.

Beyond base rates, UPS has also adjusted several rules tied directly to parcel billing.

First, the minimum billable weight threshold for Additional Handling packages rises from 40 to 50 pounds. This doesn't mean every parcel under 50 pounds is affected — only packages meeting additional-handling criteria. Sellers with heavy shipping volume or oversized products need to re-check which items may incur this fee.

Second, some regional surcharge ZIP-code ranges and the shipping zones assigned to certain ZIP codes are being adjusted. U.S. last-mile cost isn't just about parcel weight and destination state — specific ZIP codes, service type and contract pricing all affect the final bill.

Third, rates for small-business customers will also change. Per UPS's announcement, published rates for small-business ground, air and international services rise 4.5% from December 21; some eligible customers will also see a new per-piece surcharge on specific ground services, with scope and charging details to be published by UPS later.

So sellers shouldn't simply estimate costs with the 5.9% figure. Per logistics platform Loop's parcel contract analysts, 5.9% is just the average base-rate increase — it doesn't mean every seller's bill will rise by that much.

Moreover, this rate hike lands right in the U.S.-Europe year-end peak season. For sellers doing domestic U.S. orders, base freight, fuel surcharges and peak-season surcharges stack up — actual spend may come in well above a simple 5.9% estimate.

FedEx isn't stopping either. Under its published rate schedule, from January 4, 2027, standard rates for U.S. domestic, export and import parcels rise an average 5.9%, with some minimum rates, delivery-area surcharges and other transportation fees also adjusting.

Two U.S. delivery giants announcing hikes in succession has sellers worried about rising logistics costs. "Profits shrink again — a busy season for nothing," one seller said bluntly. Another sighed: "Everyone is raising rates; peak season is done for." Sellers relying on air freight and small-parcel channels feel the pressure equally: "Air rates keep climbing; small-parcel sellers really can't take it."

How much pressure can freight increases put on sellers? Some earlier cases offer a hint.

In June this year, Reuters reported that Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers were facing rising international shipping costs. Diana Qiao, a Shenzhen Temu womenswear seller, said average shipping cost per garment increased by USD 1; to protect margins she raised prices by USD 2, after which sales dipped slightly.

That reflects the dilemma of low-ticket items facing logistics cost increases: raising prices may hurt conversion, not raising them squeezes margins. For products with limited profit headroom, freight changes are hard to fully absorb on the seller's side.

So what sellers should do now isn't blanket price increases across all products, but re-calculating per-shipment costs by weight, size and delivery zone. Sellers with large volumes can confirm contract discounts, surcharges and new-rate effective dates with logistics providers in advance; for low-margin SKUs, they need to judge — combining selling price, promotions and fulfillment cost — whether continued investment still makes sense.

DSV proactively prunes low-margin clients

If the UPS and FedEx adjustments directly affect shipping costs, DSV's move sends another signal across cross-border logistics.

On October 21, global forwarder giant DSV reported Q3 2026 results. Per logistics trade media The Loadstar, DSV's Q3 airfreight tonnage and ocean TEU fell a combined 3% year over year. CEO Jens Lund noted in the earnings call that about 2 percentage points came from proactively pruning low-price, loss-making client business, with the remainder tied to volume decline.

In other words, the volume drop isn't purely weaker market demand — part of it is DSV deliberately walking away from poorly remunerated orders.

Financially, Q3 revenue was about DKK 80.7 billion, up 10.5% year over year; EBIT before special items was about DKK 6.6 billion, up 19.5%. Air and ocean segment profits rose 18.9% year over year.

Warehousing is also being adjusted. DSV continues consolidating weaker-performing warehouse sites; contract logistics EBIT before special items rose 50.3% in Q3. The company attributes the improvement to integration synergies and operational efficiency gains.

For forwarders, high volume doesn't necessarily mean high profit. If a deal is priced too low, after deducting transport, warehousing, handling and other service costs there is almost no margin left — continuing to take it may not pay. DSV's pruning of low-yield clients reflects exactly this kind of operating trade-off.

That said, this doesn't mean low-margin sellers will definitely be refused orders in the future, nor should one conclude that small and mid-sized sellers' booking priority will broadly decline. But for sellers relying on forwarders, overseas warehouses and last-mile delivery, choosing a logistics provider can't be based on quoted price alone — service stability, peak-season capacity, surcharges and exception handling all matter.

Especially during peak season: once a logistics channel fails, the impact may go beyond freight. Delayed shipments disrupt restocking rhythms, and warehousing and inventory turnover can suffer.

For sellers, rising logistics costs don't mean passive acceptance. Re-calculating margins on key SKUs, confirming new rates early, and preparing backup logistics channels are all actions that can be taken in advance.

Peak-season shipping isn't just about order volume. If freight is calculable and logistics can hold up, what's sold can actually turn into profit.